A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
